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Posts Tagged ‘risk management’

NAE announcement

As the Minerals Management Service’s liaison to the Marine Board of the National Academies and subsequently as a Marine Board member, I had the privilege of working with many outstanding engineers on matters related to offshore safety and environmental protection. Dr. Martha Grabowski was a clear standout because of her exceptional leadership and communications skills, modest ego, and willingness to assist.

Dr. Grabowski excels in analyzing and mitigating operational risks including those associated with human and organizational factors. As such, she was a great resource in our work on safety management and culture.

Congratulations to Dr. Grabowski!

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I don’t buy the argument that industry and regulators have paid too much attention to personal safety at the expense of process safety. Casualties from falls, falling objects, helicopter crashes, and other workplace activities have been persistent, and safety management programs must emphasize practices and procedures that will reduce occurrence rates.

Also, process safety has hardly been ignored. API RP 14 C has proven to be an effective safety analysis procedure for addressing undesirable events associated with each process component of a production facility.  For more complex facilities, Deepwater Operating Plans and API RP 14J, “Recommended Practice for Design and Hazard Analysis for Offshore Production Facilities, ” are good risk management supplements to RP 14C.

That said, we need better programs for sustaining the focus needed to further reduce the probability of low frequency, high consequence events.  When memories about the most recent disaster start to fade, what do we do to keep workers on edge and prevent complacency? What more can be done to prevent events with enormous consequence potential?  Some thoughts:

  1. Establish programs to remind employees about past disasters – how they happened and how they could have been prevented. How many offshore workers know the chain of events that led to the Santa Barbara blowout, Ocean Ranger sinking, Alexander Kielland capsizing, Piper Alpha fire and explosion, Ixtoc blowout, and other historic incidents? When discussing international incidents, we need to explain how our facilities or region might have been vulnerable under similar circumstances.
  2. Present information on minor incidents that could have escalated into disasters, emphasizing what could have gone wrong and why.
  3. Don’t just focus on the last disaster.  While addressing the operational and organizational issues that surfaced at Montara and Macondo, we also must assess incident data and identify activities and practices that could lead to the next disaster.
  4. Operators should not rely on the regulator to manage their operations. Reading about Montara and Macondo, one senses that the regulators were called on to referee internal company disputes and protect the operators and contractors from themselves.
  5. Regulators should not be making day-to-day operating decisions. Regulators should make sure that the regulations are clear and that operators have effective management procedures for adjusting programs as new information is obtained. Regimes that provide for regulator approval of each activity or adjustment promote operator complacency and are not in the best interest of safety over the long term.
  6. Service companies and contractors must challenge operators and regulators.  Operators should expect contractors to think and question, not to simply execute orders. There are impressive examples of contractors insisting on safety improvements, and being willing to forego business rather than compromise on safety.
  7. All sectors of the offshore industry should participate in standards development. Effective standards are dependent on diverse input.
  8. Industry and government leaders should promote innovation. Obvious weaknesses should be identified and industry should be challenged to propose solutions. For example, why do concerns about “false alarms” preclude automatic alarm activation (see Transocean’s Macondo report)? Data from redundant sensors can be analyzed by predictive software that is capable of quickly identifying real events. Similarly, why have advances in BOPE, including monitoring systems, been so slow? Why are BOP capabilities still poorly understood? Why are well integrity and casing pressure issues (producing wells) so common?

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This excerpt from a University of Michigan article describes the engineer’s paradox:

For engineers, failure and risk have a special relationship. If they don’t take risks they never do anything new. But if they do take risks, their probability of failing increases. So engineers must welcome risk and the opportunity to learn from failure, but they must make every effort to succeed. This leaves engineers in the odd predicament of becoming less informed as they become more successful. In that light, bad judgment could be an invaluable but potentially lethal experience. Conversely, evidence shows that experience fosters good judgment – the longer people do something, the more likely they are to make decisions, and in making them they’ll acquire not just an appreciation for the difficulty of rendering good judgments but the skill to do it well.

Comments:

  1. Society is dependent on engineers taking risks. These risks can be managed, but not totally eliminated.
  2. The oil and gas that are produced offshore support economic development and technological advances that make our lives safer and cleaner.
  3. Importing energy transfers some risk to other locations, but does not reduce (and may actually increase) the overall risk associated with energy consumption.
  4. Experience matters. Optimal corporate and governmental risk management regimes emphasize the role of experts in making project-specific and programmatic decisions, and promote industry-government communication among specialists. Experience is not a conflict of interest!

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With all the discussion about risk management, what should government and industry be doing to identify and address potential weaknesses in drilling and production systems?  A good place to start would be to review the reports that have been prepared by the Petroleum Safety Authority – Norway (PSA) for the past ten years. These reports use a variety of indicators to assess safety risks on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. Torleif Husebo presented a summary of PSA’s risk program at the Vancouver conference. The full text of their latest report can be viewed here.

As was noted in Vancouver, we need to continue to develop and assess new indicators for possible use in risk management programs.

According to PSA:

No single indicator can pick up all relevant aspects of risk. Developments are accordingly measured by utilising a number of relevant indicators and methods, such as the collection and analysis of incident indicators and barrier data, interviews with key informants and a major questionnaire survey every other year.

Risk management is complex and there is no cookbook.  Technological, human, organizational, and procedural factors must all be considered, and everyone needs to be engaged.

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