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Notes:

  1. Click on the diagram to enlarge
  2. The 9 7/8″ liner has NOT been run yet.
  3. Note the cement bond log.  3 months too late?
  4. Step 2 is to intercept and kill the flow in the annulus.  If there is no flow inside the 7″ casing, step 2 will kill the well.  This step is scheduled to be completed by the end of July.
  5. Step 3 will be necessary to make sure the production casing is plugged, even it there is no flow inside that casing.
  6. The timeframes are understandably conservative.

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Regarding the relief wells, Development Driller III, which is the lead drilling rig for the relief wells is now at 17,780 feet measured depth, within a couple hundred feet of the proposed penetration point of the wellbore.

Admiral Allen: Thank you for reading BOE and responding to our request.  You even specified “measured depth!”

Relief Well Team:  Great work!  Time to finish the job!

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  1. Montara watch: 19 days have now elapsed since the Montara Inquiry Report was presented to Minister Ferguson, and there are no recent media updates on the release of the report. Meanwhile, Australian radio has a good piece on Montara – long, but worth the time.
  2. Macondo: The relief well reports continue to be sketchy and inconsistent.  On July 4, the Unified Command reported that the primary relief well had reached 17,400′ (presumably measured depth), while  BP’s update for the same date indicated that the first well had reached 17,725′ (this too must also be measure depth, not true vertical depth).  It’s unclear whether the final casing (9 7/8″ liner) has been set.  Admiral Allen will likely provide a better update today.
  3. More regulatory philosophy: The regulatory system is at least as important as the specific operating requirements.   This UNEP piece provides a good summary of the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches.

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Interesting comments from Jane Cutler, CEO of Australia’s National Offshore Safety Petroleum Safety Authority, in NOPSA’s excellent newsletter:

The incidents in the Gulf of Mexico (Deepwater Horizon) and at the Montara wellhead platform are different in many respects, particularly in technical matters. However, they share some common factors prompting regulatory action.

I agree entirely with Ms. Cutler.  International regulators and operators must work in concert to address and resolve these issues.

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BP has released a slide presentation and animation on the relief wells showing the intercept point below the 9 7/8″ casing shoe.   The exact sequence of operations once they reach the intercept point will be interesting to observe. They should encounter flow when they reach the 7″ casing annulus (assuming that is a flow path; there still seems to be some uncertainty in that regard).  Will they attempt to kill the flow in the annulus before milling into the 7″ casing?  Is there flow inside the 7″ casing via channels in the casing shoe? Is there drill pipe inside the casing?

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link

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-The duration of the Montara blowout was 75 Days. Ironically, Day 76 of the Macondo blowout will be the 4th of July.

-Eleven days have elapsed since the Montara Report was presented to Minister Ferguson, who has apparently retained his cabinet position in the new government.  Now that the cabinet has been settled, perhaps there will be more public clamor for the report?

-Cap Summit in DC? – According to Admiral Allen, government and industry experts will convene on Wednesday to decide whether to change the collection cap.  Other designs would provide a better seal and facilitate higher recovery rates via free-standing risers, but the well would flow unabated during the changeover.

-More Macondo irony:  Since the oil spilled is “avoidably lost,” royalties will presumably be due on both the oil spilled and the oil “produced” at Macondo.  However, for fields in water depths greater than 800m, the Deepwater Royalty Relief Act  of 1995 exempts the first 87.5 million barrels of oil equivalent from Federal royalties.  Court interpretations of this poorly written legislation have determined that this relief must be applied on a lease (not field) basis, making the royalty exemption much more generous.  Ironically, Kerr McGee (now part of Macondo partner Anadarko) filed the law suit that resulted in this favorable decision for industry.  MMS, which has been repeatedly (and incorrectly) denounced for being “too cozy with industry,” fought hard for the less generous interpretation.

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From Offshore Magazine

The deepwater Jubilee field development offshore Ghana is on track to deliver first oil late in 2010, according to partner Tullow Oil.

Tip-of-the-hat to Ghana which advanced in the World Cup at the expense of my Yanks.  They deserved the win.

In a recent update, Offshore Magazine says Ghana ” is fast becoming one of the E&P bright spots for offshore Africa.”  I hope representatives from Ghana are able to join us at the International Regulators’ Offshore Safety Conference in October.

Good luck to Ghana in the next round of the World Cup!

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Hurricane Juan - "Sudden Storm" killed 9 offshore workers in 1985

The offshore industry has an outstanding hurricane evacuation record, but the Macondo blowout adds a significant new dimension to the decision making process.  Disconnect the production risers and 35,000 to 60,000 bopd flow directly into the Gulf.  Suspend the relief wells and the final Macondo solution gets moved that much farther into the future.

There will be pressure to minimize the downtime and that would be a mistake.  Days, not hours, will be needed to prepare for the evacuations.  Decisions will have to be made well in advance of a storm’s arrival and will be based on less reliable long-term weather forecasts.  If a shutdown decision is made too soon, hundreds of thousands of additional barrels of oil pour into the Gulf.  If the decision is delayed, lives are threatened.

The most frightening scenarios are associated with “sudden storms” which can form in or near the Gulf and explode into hurricanes in hours, not days.  The rapid formation and development of these storms precludes an orderly shutdown and evacuation process, and poses a major safety threat to workers.  In 1985, nine offshore workers were killed when Hurricane Juan formed suddenly in the Gulf and personnel could not be safely evacuated.

Let’s hope that the well is brought under control before any hurricanes enter or form in the Gulf.  If not, decision makers need to exercise extreme caution and shutdown operations before lives are threatened.

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I believe they’re going to try and intercept somewhere around between 16,700 and 17,000 feet. We will confirm that for you and put out a statement tomorrow.

Comment: I pasted that portion of the well cross-section above.  It looks like the plan is to drill into the 7″ x 9 7/8″ annulus (the most likely flow path) and secure that annulus.  Based on the float and casing shoe issues that have been reported, the flow could also be inside the 7″ production casing or both inside the casing and in the annulus. (Also, sealing the annulus could force flow through possible shoe channels inside the production casing).  They will presumably have to drill through the 7″ casing (after the annulus has been secured?) and set a cement plug inside the casing.

They decided not to use the blowout preventer because of the uncertainty regarding the status of the wellbore and what pressure might do going down. That’s the reason they abandoned the Top Kill and the capping exercise at that point.

Comment: Admiral Allen confirms reports that the second BOP option was dropped because of downhole issues.  Poor well integrity sure makes things difficult.  Concerns have been raised about the strength of the 16″ casing, and possible fracture paths outside casing.   If the ROV had been able to actuate the BOP and seal the well, would casing failure and formation fracturing have occurred; or are subsequent events (erosion?) the primary reason for these well integrity concerns?

Secretary Salazar and Secretary Chu had a meeting last week in Washington with other industry representatives beyond BP, other oil-producing companies that are out there, and we’ve actually identified a couple of platforms that are in the area that might be capable of taking the product coming out of the wellbore through pipelines and either producing it or putting it back down into the reservoir. We’re exploring that over the next couple of days.

Comment: Yikes!

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