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Archive for the ‘hurricanes’ Category

The Gulf oil patch got a pass in 2025! 2026 is anyone’s guess.

As was the case in 2023, there were no tropical storm production shut-ins in the Gulf in 2025. Per the chart below derived from BSEE data, only 4 tropical storms caused platform shut-ins in the past 5 years. This lull followed a 6-storm year in 2020.

The Minerals Management Service Technology Assessment and Research Program began closely studying hurricane damage to offshore facilities following Hurricane Andrew in 1992. Dr. Charles Smith was a leader in these efforts. Attached is a comprehensive study report on Andrew’s effects on offshore platforms. Three background paragraphs are pasted below.

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The average oil production rate for the Gulf OCS was 1.915 million bopd in June, the highest rate since Oct. 2023 and thus the highest in the history of the Gulf of America 😉.

As forecasted, deepwater projects are ramping up, and modest production growth should continue over the near to intermediate term.

At the end of this month, when the July production figures are released, we should get a better sense of the temporary reduction in production caused by zinc contamination in the Mars pipeline system.

Natural gas production, which is now primarily from oil wells (i.e. associated gas) and is thus more closely linked to oil production rates, increased by >10% in June to over 60 bcf. As was the case for oil, gas production was the highest since Oct. 2023.

It is now peak hurricane season, so the eyes of production forecasters are focused on the tropics. Few need to be reminded about what happened 20 years ago when Hurricanes Katrina and Rita roared through the Gulf, preceded by Hurricane Ivan “The Terrible” one year earlier. Those 3 hurricanes triggered major improvements in hurricane preparedness, particularly with regard to stationkeeping capabilities.

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Following the 200,000 bopd decline in Sept. because of Tropical Storms Francine and Helene, Oct. GoM oil production was once again in the normal range for 2024. With the exception of Sept., average 2024 production has been remarkably consistent from month to month.

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Timeframe for government and industry actions following the 2005 hurricane season.

  

Optimally, the regulator establishes clear objectives for the operating companies and a schedule for achieving those objectives. This approach was demonstrated with great success following the 2005 hurricane season (Katrina and Rita) when numerous mooring system and other stationkeeping issues were identified.

Minerals Management Service Director Johnnie Burton sent a letter (attachment 1) to industry leaders calling for a face-to-face meeting with Department of the Interior Secretary Gale Norton. The Secretary outlined her concerns and informed offshore operators that there would be no drilling from moored mobile drilling units or jackup rigs during the next hurricane season until the issues identified during Hurricanes Katrina and Rita were addressed.

The collaborative effort that followed was a resounding success (2nd attachment). In addition to addressing station keeping concerns, a comprehensive list of hurricane issues was developed. Industry and government then worked together to assess mitigations and develop new standards and procedures. The essential MODU standards were completed before the 2006 hurricane season, and all of the related concerns were effectively addressed prior to the 2009 hurricane season. Had the government elected to promulgate regulations to address all of these issues, much of this work would have never been completed.

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As expected, the Gulf of Mexico’s remarkable 7 month production consistency streak ended in September as a result of shut-ins associated with Tropical Storms Francine and Helene. Nonetheless, average daily production still amounted to 88% of the ~1.8 million bopd average that had been achieved for the previous 7 months. Rather impressive resiliency!

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The streak of unprecedented Gulf of Mexico oil production stability was extended to 7 months in August.

As a result of shut-ins for Tropical Storms Francine and Helene, the streak will end when the production for Sept. is posted.

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In a previous post, I mentioned the plight of my wife’s 80 year old friend who lost her home and car in the Asheville area. She was rescued by her brother Jim, who lives in Franklin, NC, and was taken in by some good folks who live in the upper hills. She is now living with her brother until she can find a rental.

Her most recent update (below) discusses her frustrations in dealing with FEMA. This is not intended as a broad indictment of FEMA, but as a reflection of the challenges individuals, particularly the elderly, can face in trying to recover from a natural disaster like Hurricane Helene.

Hello-

It’s almost 5am Saturday.  Yesterday was a disaster! Some early morning calls to insurance and that sort of thing. Those followed by tying to reach FEMA helpline by phone. Was on hold waiting for an agent for more than an hour before giving up.  Jim looked up the locations for face to face FEMA: none within 25 miles or 50 miles and only 3 in 100 miles. The closest being in Asheville about 4/5 miles from my house. Off we went with documents that needed correcting  from the ones originally submitted.  Their internet was down when we got there and remained down until leaving at 4:30ish.  It was hot, no shade, no where to sit. I got over-heated and feeling faint; almost hit the ground before getting to a picnic area where i could lie down on a bench. Medical people were there; 2 doctors and several nurses. Eventually I was moved to an ambulance to be monitored for a good while. Given a IV drip then allowed to leave.  They really, really wanted to take me to the hospital but I refused.  I said the Franklin hospital was close to Jim’s if needed.  So, that is the big thing to end the week.

I am sure other stuff was accomplished but don’t remember.   

Love and many thanks to everyone for the support, cards and packages.  So very grateful. ♥♥

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In light of Hurricane Milton’s more southerly and easterly track, Chevron’s Blind Faith floating production unit is the only GoM platform reported to be shut-in at this time. Blind Faith was installed in 2008 in 6480′ of water in the Mississippi Canyon area, and is reportedly producing 65,000 bopd.

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Update: BSEE reports that as of 9/29/2024, essentially all production had been restored.

As of 9/28, 210,000 BOPD remained shut-in with only 4 platforms still evacuated. Presumably, production had not resumed (or had only partially resumed) on some high rate deepwater platforms.

BSEE shut-in, evacuation, and relocation data in the table below are as of 12:30 p.m. ET on the specified date.

date9/249/259/269/279/28
oil s.i.(BOPD)
% of total
284,000
 16.21
511,000
29.18
441,923
25.25
427,000
 24.39
210,000
12
gas s.i.(MMCFD)
% of total
208
11.2
313
16.85
363.39
19.81
343
18.46
112
6.04
platform evacs
% of total
4
1.08
17
4.58
27
7.28
9
2.43
4
1.08
rig evacs
% of total
0
0
1
20
1
20
00
DP rigs moved
% of total
2
9.5
3
14.3
3
14.3
1
4.76
1
4.76

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