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Archive for the ‘energy policy’ Category

Bidding at the February 2022 Atlantic (NY/NJ) wind sale seemed incomprehensible given the economic and political uncertainties associated with offshore wind development.The 6 leases garnered bids ranging from $285 million to an astounding $1.1 billion, with total high bids of $4.37 billion! The Administration’s victory message correctly boasted that this was the “nation’s highest grossing competitive energy lease sale in history.”

The intense bidding was driven by the lure of subsidies, guaranteed power sales, unprecedented Federal and State promotion, peak climate activism, inattention to mounting public opposition, and irrational expectations regarding the role of offshore wind in powering the regional economy.

That wind bubble has since burst, as demonstrated by the lackluster (at best) August 2024 Atlantic sale, the disinterest in Gulf of America wind leases, and recognition of the costly realities of floating turbine projects in the Pacific. Any air that remained in the balloon was released following the Presidential election.

The table below summarizes the sale results and the current status for the 6 leases issued following the 2/2022 sale. One lease has been essentially terminated by the partners and the State. The other leases are in holding patterns in the planning phases.

high bidderlease #acresbid ($millions)status
Bluepoint Wind (EDP, ENGIE, Global Infrastructure Partners)053771,522765Site Assessment Plan (SAP) review
Attentive Energy
(Total and Corio Generation)
053884,332795Construction and Operations Plan (COP) review
Community Offshore Wind
(RWE, National Grid)
0539125,9641100no plans submitted
Atlantic Shores
(Shell, EDF)
054179,351780dead?
Invenergy
054283,976645no plans submitted
Vineyard Mid-Atlantic (Avangrid, Copenhagen Industy Partners)054443,056285COP review

The first US commercial offshore project, Vineyard Wind, has proven to be a major step backward for the wind industry. After being granted questionable financial and quality assurance waivers to reduce costs and “allow Vineyard Wind to adhere to its construction schedule,” the July 2024 turbine blade failure and subsequent lightning strike have raised new questions about the technology, industry, and regulatory regime. The report on the blade failure, which should arguably be a precursor to the resumption of Atlantic wind development, has yet to be released.

The one shining light, relatively speaking, for Atlantic wind development, has been Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind. That large project is on track to be completed at the end of 2026. Although the cost has risen about nine per cent, to $10.7 billion, that increase is understandable given the higher than anticipated costs for upgrading the onshore network.

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Dept. of the Interior Announcement and leasing plan development process

Notably, BOEM’s jurisdiction on the OCS has recently changed. A new planning area offshore Alaska—the High Arctic—is being established as the 27th OCS planning area. Additionally, boundaries of other existing planning areas are being updated to align with BOEM’s revised jurisdiction. Details on these changes will be included in a forthcoming Federal Register notice and posted to BOEM’s website. 

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The letter is attached. Excerpt:

The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) is issuing this Director’s Order to Empire Offshore Wind LLC to halt all ongoing activities related to the Empire Wind Project on the outer continental shelf to allow time for it to address feedback it has received, including from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), about the environmental analyses
for that project. BOEM received this and other feedback regarding Empire Wind as an outgrowth of the review that the Department is engaged in related to offshore wind projects. See the President’s Memorandum of January 20, 2025. 90 Fed. Reg. 8363 (January 29, 2025).

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The Santa Barbara Independent doesn’t pull any punches in this article about the once invincible California Coastal Commission. I recommend that you read the entire article, but here are some choice excerpts (emphasis added):

Lastly, it’s totally unprecedented for members of the commission to verbally eviscerate energy planners with Santa Barbara County at a public hearing for refusing to provide them requested planning documents having to do with Sable no fewer than seven times. While the county has denied this charge, no one from the county showed up for last week’s meeting to explain their actions. One commissioner termed this absence a “dereliction of duty.”

What actions and outcomes ultimately emerge from this rancor remain far from obvious. That’s in part because the political support enjoyed by the Coastal Commission — long regarded as one of California’s many “third rails” of state politics — has never been so uncertain. By “uncertain,” I mean rarely has any state agency been so reviled by such a wide swath of political players and stakeholder groups.

The question has become not so much who hates the Coastal Commission — it’s who doesn’t. Donald Trump has hated the commission since it objected to a 70-foot flagpole Trump planted on a beachfront golf course he owned back before he became president.

Elon Musk, Trump’s alter ego, sued the Coastal Commission — and lost — over the commission’s outspoken refusal to grant him the “consistency determination” he needed to increase the number of SpaceX rocket launches from Vandenberg Space Force Base from 35 to 50. Although a federal judge would rule in the commission’s favor, Governor Gavin Newsom, a noted Democrat, announced he was siding with Musk on this one. 

So, what happens if Sable doesn’t pay the fine? Or keeps on working despite three cease-and-desist orders? The key question — still loudly unanswered — is what Attorney General Rob Bonta will do. Will Bonta throw his considerable heft behind the commission? He hasn’t yet. And it’s been several months. Does the governor want to pick his battles with the Trump-Musk White House for causes that enjoy more broad public support?

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pictured:TMC pilot nodule recovery trials

According to a Financial Times report, the White House is drafting an executive order that will facilitate the stockpiling of critical metals found in the Pacific. The Administration is intent on countering China’s rare earth supply chains and battery mineral dominance.

This is good news for TMC, a Canadian company that plans to apply for deepsea mining permits under US authority, not proposed international regulations.

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Equinor’s Empire Wind project had been challenged by New Jersey congressmen and questioned by Norwegian investors. I suspect that Equinor saw the writing on the wall.

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The Government Accountability Office report on Offshore Wind Energy (full report attached) does a good job of summarizing the potential impacts from offshore wind development. They are categorized in the report as follows:

  • Marine Life and Ecosystems (see table pasted below)
  • Fishing Industry and Fisheries Management
  • Economic Development and Community Impacts
  • Tribal Resources, Including Sacred Sites and Established Fishing Grounds
  • Defense and Radar Systems
  • Maritime Navigation and Safety

Unfortunately, GAO’s recommendations, which focus on consultation and staffing (perennial favorites), are rather meaningless. Does GAO really think more consultation will resolve the fundamental concerns of the tribes and fishing industry? Does GAO really think increasing BOEM/BSEE staff is a solution? Wind was the signature offshore energy program of the previous Administration, and it was well resourced.

When the legislation authorizing offshore wind energy development was drafted, we envisioned energy alternatives that could complement thermal energy sources like gas, coal, and nuclear plants. Natural gas plants are particularly important to intermittent energy sources, because their power can be readily dispatched on demand.

Never did we expect attempts to ban the dispatchable energy sources on which renewable energy goals were dependent. Policies that limit gas production, transportation, and consumption don’t boost offshore wind development, they doom it.

In a rush to achieve the Administration’s energy goals, the wind leasing program brushed aside important economic, safety, national security, and environmental issues. Coastal residents, tribes, fishing interests, power customers, and other affected parties have rebelled. Their concerns won’t be smoothed over by increasing consultation.

So now the wind program is in a dark and windless place (a regulatory dunkelflaute?). Five projects are under construction or in the early stages of operation. Construction has been authorized for 6 other projects. Five more projects are in various stages of permitting. What next?

Meanwhile, we still haven’t seen a report on the ugly and embarrassing Vineyard Wind blade failure offshore Nantucket last July. Shouldn’t that report be a precursor to further offshore wind development in the US Atlantic? Also of note, that same turbine was struck by lightning 2 months ago.

Should directed suspension orders be issued pending a complete review of the wind program? If so, for which leases and for how long? Suspension of projects still in the permitting phase would be relatively painless and maybe even attractive given the current state of the wind industry. However, financial impacts for projects in the construction phase would be significant. These important next-step decisions need to be made soon. Muddling along is not a strategy.

Table 2: Examples of Potential Impacts of Offshore Wind Development to Marine Life and Ecosystems

ImpactDescription
Acoustic disturbanceConstruction and survey activities produce underwater noise that can disturb sensitive marine species. Offshore wind projects take measures to mitigate underwater noise, including the use of bubble curtains to dampen pile driving sound and pausing operations if protected species are sighted.
Changes to marine habitatInstallation of infrastructure, such as turbine foundations and transmission cables, introduces new structures and causes changes to the ocean floor that can alter marine habitat and affect the distribution, abundance, and composition of marine life in the area. These new structures can create artificial habitat that may benefit some species while displacing others and could affect bottom-dwelling species through disturbing the seabed. Artificial habitat effects of wind turbines are well documented, but research is ongoing to monitor and understand impacts on marine life.
Hydrodynamic effectsOperation of wind turbines can affect hydrodynamics and ocean processes such as currents and wind wakes, but little is known about regional effects of widescale deployment on ecosystems.
Vessel disturbanceVessels can disturb some species and pose strike risks to large marine animals, but the increase in offshore wind vessels is projected to be small compared to the total volume of vessel traffic. Offshore wind vessels are required to take measures such as following speed restrictions and employing protected species observers.
Entanglement riskStructures, such as mooring cables from floating wind turbines, could snag fishing gear and other marine debris and create entanglement risk to marine animals. Wind projects employ measures to minimize entanglement (e.g., mooring systems designed to detect entanglement), but there is uncertainty about the extent of the risk from floating turbines because of limited deployment.a
Collision risk to birds and batsTurbine blades pose a collision risk to some sea birds, but little is known about offshore collision risk to bats. Research on collision risks and mitigation measures (e.g., lighting and curtailment) is ongoing.

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The “Zero Based Regulatory Budgeting” Executive Order will promote confusion and uncertainty, not sustainable regulatory reform.

The EO requires agencies to issue a rule, effective not later than September 30, 2025, that inserts a sunset date into each “covered regulation.” The sunset date must be 1 year after the effective date of the sunset rule, but may be extended multiple times for a total of up to 5 years.  

From an offshore energy perspective, the confusion starts with the EO’s applicability. One section of the order exempts regulatory permitting regimes authorized by statute. Another section specifies that the order “applies to all regulations issued pursuant to the Outer Continental Shelf Act of 1953 and any amendments thereto.” This is a fundamental contradiction given that OCSLA is a statutory planning and permitting regime. Which regulations are subject to the EO?

Comments:

  • For some reason (too complicated?), EPA and the Army Corps of Engineers are given 30 days to provide a list of statutes that are subject to the EO. Perhaps all affected regulators should have been given 30 days to comment on the draft EO before it was finalized.
  • The EO is sure to create chaos as regulators, under the direction of managers keen on complying with the President’s directive, attempt to determine the EO’s applicability and establish implementation procedures.
  • The EO, which is intended to provide order and certainty, will do exactly the opposite. How does the regulated industry plan for future operations while this vague and controversial “zero based regulatory budgeting” exercise is ongoing? What are the chances of this directive being sustained?
  • Reducing the number of pages in the US Code, while desirable, is not regulatory reform.
  • The order assumes that most regulations are meaningless, which is not the case. What is the plan for filling the void after regulations are deleted?
  • The EO should embrace, rather than circumvent, the notice and comment requirements of the Administrative Procedures Act. The tedious and sometimes burdensome APA has protected the public and the energy industry from countless unjustified, unauthorized, and poorly considered regulatory initiatives.
  • Eliminating rules is not synonymous with establishing a regulatory framework that will improve efficiency and stimulate innovation.
  • Other factors are paramount in improving regulatory effectiveness and efficiency. These include regulatory fragmentation, effective goal setting, management systems, culture, data gathering, performance monitoring, continuous improvement, collaboration, and the adoption of industry standards.
  • Quality regulators are more important than quality regulations. Regulating with fewer rules requires skilled regulators.
  • Agencies should be directed to consider how they can best reduce the regulatory burden without compromising safety and environmental performance. Page reduction should be secondary.

If regulatory efficiency is the goal, this EO is likely to do more harm than good. Federal agencies are largely comprised of bright people with good intentions. Challenge them to propose innovative reforms that will simplify and improve their regulatory regimes.

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“The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management’s analysis reveals an additional 1.30 billion barrels of oil equivalent since 2021, bringing the total reserve estimate to 7.04 billion barrels of oil equivalent. This includes 5.77 billion barrels of oil and 7.15 trillion cubic feet of natural gas—a 22.6% increase in remaining recoverable reserves.” 

YearNumber of fieldsOriginal ReservesHistorical Cumulative ProductionReserves
Oil BbblGas TcfBOE BbblOil BbblGas TcfBOE BbblOil BbblGas TcfBOE Bbbl
19752556.6159.917.33.8227.28.662.7932.78.61
19804358.0488.923.94.9948.713.663.0540.210.20
198557510.63116.731.46.5871.119.234.0545.612.16
199078210.64129.933.88.1193.824.802.5336.18.95
199589912.01144.937.89.68117.430.572.3327.57.22
20001,05014.93167.344.711.93142.737.323.0024.67.38
20051,19619.80181.852.214.61163.943.775.1917.98.38
20101,28221.50191.155.517.11179.349.014.3911.86.49
20151,31223.06193.857.619.58186.552.783.487.34.78
20161,31523.73194.658.420.16187.553.583.576.84.79
20171,31924.65195.259.720.78188.954.213.876.35.00
20181,31924.86195.559.721.42189.855.213.445.74.45
20191,32526.77197.061.822.12190.956.094.656.15.74
20231,33630.43201.266.224.66194.059.195.777.27.04
Oil and gas reserves and cumulative production at end of year, 1975-2023, Gulf of America, Outer Continental Shelf and Slope. “Oil” includes crude oil and condensate; “gas” includes associated and non-associated gas. Reserves estimated as of December 31 each year.

This increase in reserves will not please those responsible for the current 5 Year Oil and Gas Leasing Plan. They told us that we don’t need more OCS lease sales and that our biggest concern is producing too much oil and gas for too long!

Page 6 of the Leasing Plan:

The long-term nature of OCS oil and gas development, such that production on a lease may not begin for a decade or more after lease issuance and can continue for decades, makes consideration of net-zero pathways relevant to the Secretary’s determinations on how the National OCS Program best meets the Nation’s energy needs.

Energy experts like Dan Yergin and Vicki Hollub have a much different view. Per Hollub:

Crude reserves are being found and developed at a much slower pace than they’ve been in the past. Specifically, she said the world has only newly identified less than half the amount of crude it’s consumed over the course of the past 10 years. Given the current trends, this means demand will exceed supply before the end of 2025.

A bit off-topic, but Jeff Walker, a former colleague and the MMS Regional Supervisor in Alaska, had the best quip about reserve numbers. In explaining an operator’s revised reserve numbers for a producing unit which had leases with different royalty rates, Jeff noted that “oil always migrates to the lower royalty leases.”😉

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  1. Responsible Offshore Development Alliance (RODA), Petitioner, Amicus briefs submitted by Green Oceans, America First Policy Institute, and the Save Right Whales Coalition
  2. Seafreeze Shoreside, Inc., Petitioner, Amicus briefs submitted by Green Oceans, Protect Our Coast NJ, America First Policy Institute, and the Save Right Whales Coalition

Given that the SCOTUS declined to hear a Vineyard Wind challenge by the Nantucket-based ACK for Whales group, the odds of the new challenges being heard would seem to be low. However, it’s noteworthy that both Vineyard Wind and the Federal Government have waived their right to respond to these petitions. The Government’s waiver to respond to the RODA petition is pasted below.

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