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Archive for April, 2026

DOE’s 3/11/2026 announcement called for the release of 172 million barrels. To date, 378,000 bbls (0.22% of that amount) have been released.

datebbls (1000s)
3/6415,422
3/13415,422
3/20415,442
3/27415,064

The big picture:

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Companies seeking to acquire OCS leases are not only competing with each other, they are also competing with BOEM’s tract evaluations. In that regard, the bidders fared well at Sale BBG1. Only 3 of the 181 high bids were rejected by BOEM. and those rejections appear to be warranted.

The rejected bids were significantly below both BOEM’s Mean of the Range-of-Value and Lower Bound Confidence Interval for these single bid tracts (table below).

Block No.Companyno. of bidsbidMROVLBCI
EW 921LLOG1$505,777$2,900,000$2,200,000
MC 587KUSA1$700,000 $3,300,000$2,200,000
MC 588LLOG1$613,008$6,100,000$4,600,000
MROV=Mean of the Range-of-Value; LBCI=Lower Bound Confidence Interval; KUSA=Karoon (Australia) Energy USA; EW=Ewing Bank; MC=Mississippi Canyon

LLOG submitted 9 other high bids (alone or with partners) that were accepted. KUSA did not submit any other bids. We’ll see if the rejected bids for these blocks are exceeded in future sales.

Nine other high bids (table below) were less than the MROV, but all were greater than the LBCI. Those bidders “beat the house,” acquiring leases for <MROV. In that regard, Equinor led the pack with no rejections even though 3 of their 7 bids were below MROV. Similarly, 2 of Beacon’s 4 bids were <MROV, with no rejections.

Block No.Companyno. of bidsbidMROVLBCI
GC 345Beacon1$5,302,358$5,400,000$4,200,000
GC 346Beacon1$1,102,358$1,500,000$900,000
GC 547Equinor1$3,200,067$4,500,000$2,600,000
GC 549Equinor1$899,967$1,500,000$576,000
AT 64LLOG1$7,997,018$8,300,000$6,700.000
KC 386Oxy2$3,000,505$3,500,000$2,800,000
KC 429Oxy1$600,505$910,000$470,000
KC 431Woodside1$904,547$1,200,000$840,000
WR 56Equinor1$904,547$1,200,000$576,000
MROV=Mean of the Range-of-Value; LBCI=Lower Bound Confidence Interval; AT=Atwater Valley, GC=Green Canyon, KC=Keathley Canyon, WR=Walker Ridge

Perhaps most interesting were the blocks that were highly valued by industry, but not by BOEM. Each of these blocks (table below) received multiple bids and high bids >$10 million. Conversely, BOEM valued the blocks at only $576,000, which (per the terms of the sale) equates to the minimum acceptable bid of $100/acre.

Block No.high bidderhigh bidother bidsMROV
GC 845Beacon$11,802,358LLOG: $613,008$576,000
KC 25Chevron$18,592,086BP: $11,507,770
Shell: $753,029
$576,000
WR 443Woodside$15,204,547Chevron $1,596,189$576,000
WR444Woodside$12,204,547BP: $4,593,770
Chevron $1,482,378
$576,000
MROV=Mean of the Range-of-Value; LBCI=Lower Bound Confidence Interval; GC=Green Canyon, KC=Keathley Canyon, WR=Walker Ridge


All of this demonstrates yet again that:

  • the govt is leasing exploration and development opportunities, not confirmed resources,
  • commercial discoveries are far from certain,
  • informed assessments differ (I.e. great minds, and their computers, don’t always think alike 😀),
  • corporate priorities differ, and
  • exploration strategies evolve.

Superstition, tactic, AI, coded or subliminal message? 😉

  • All 58 BP bids end with 770. Examples: $1,707,770 and $807,770. (At Sale BBG2, all 5 BP bids ended with 990.)
  • All 18 Shell bids ended with 029. (At Sale BBG2, all 6 Shell bids ended with 240.)
  • 13 of 15 Anadarko bids ended with 505, the other 2 ended with 101.
  • All 9 Woodside bids ended with 547.
  • All 3 Eni bids ended with 001.
  • All 4 Arena bids ended with 912.
  • All 12 Talos bids ended with 986.
  • All 3 Beacon bids ended with 358.

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The ESA, which was enacted with good intentions, has perhaps been most effective in blocking, delaying, or complicating energy development. In the Gulf of America, the primary species in recent ESA battles has been the Rice’s whale.

While this blog was focused on the Santa Ynez Unit drama, a major ESA policy maneuver for the Gulf of America was in the works.

A provision of the ESA authorizes an Endangered Species Committee, known to critics as the “God Squad,” to grant exemptions to ESA requirements. The Committee is comprised of the Secretary of the Interior (chair), the Secretary of Agriculture, the Secretary of the Army, the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors, the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, and the Administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Yesterday, the Committee met (notice attached) and agreed to exempt Gulf oil and gas operations from the Endangered Species Act.

Knowing the swings in the political pendulum, provisions for reversing this decision warrant attention. The applicable language from the statute is pasted below:

16 U.S. Code § 1536 (h)(2)

(B) An exemption shall be permanent under subparagraph (A) unless—

(i) the Secretary finds, based on the best scientific and commercial data available, that such exemption would result in the extinction of a species that was not the subject of consultation under subsection (a)(2) or was not identified in any biological assessment conducted under subsection (c), and

(ii) the Committee determines within 60 days after the date of the Secretary’s finding that the exemption should not be permanent.

So, barring legislation, the exemption would seem to be difficult to overturn.

Earthjustice is vowing to “go to court to stop this illegal order.”

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