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Posts Tagged ‘offshore oil’

Unified Command News Conference update:

  1. Efforts to actuate the BOPE continue, but no details were provided.  In my opinion, the Unified Command could be more transparent about the BOP actuation program and results.  This is a critical aspect of the response.  At a minimum,  a brief summary of the work that has been performed and the outcomes should be provided.
  2. Preparations for drilling 2 relief wells continue.  The decision to initiate 2 wells is applauded, and increases the likelihood of a timely and favorable outcome.
  3. To date, there have been no shoreline impacts from the spill.
  4. 3 whales were observed in the area.
  5. The Ocean Endeavor has been evacuated for precautionary reasons (see below).

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Benton F. Baugh, who holds numerous patents for blowout preventer parts, said the subs should be able to do the job.

“If they can’t get it closed off, something really unusual happened,” said Baugh, president of Radoil Inc. in Houston and a National Academy of Engineering member.

Comment: I agree, and think they will be successful.  However, it looks like drill pipe will have to be sheared and this is not a slam dunk.  Remote BOP activation capability, which will surely be a major issue in the aftermath of this incident, will be an exponentially bigger issue if the ROV actuation is unsuccessful.  The importance of this ROV effort cannot be overstated.

Kenneth E. Arnold, an offshore production facility expert and another member of the engineering academy, said drilling a relief well is not an easy task.

“You have to intersect the well,” he said. “Sometimes you have to drill through the steel, and that’s what happened in Australia. It took them three times before they were successful.”

Comment: Ken is on target as usual, although it actually took five attempts to intercept the Montara well.  BP has mentioned “relief wells” so they may be using more than one rig to accelerate the drilling and maximize the chance of success.  Hopefully, relief wells will not be necessary.

link

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While the tragic loss of life cannot be reversed, the responders appear to be making every effort to secure the well and minimize environmental damage.  Plans are moving ahead on several fronts as highlighted below:

  1. ROVs are being deployed to actuate BOP rams and halt the flow.  For the spill is to be stopped quickly, this plan must be successful.  This picture indicates that there is drill pipe in the well and some flow inside the drill pipe.  The drill pipe will have to be cut with a shear ram to fully seal the well.  One or more other rams may be closed around the drill pipe.   I am sure the top subsea engineers in the world are working on this plan.  Unless there is damage to the BOP stack or other complications that haven’t been reported, I like their chances.
  2. The Deepwater Driller 3 will be on location on Monday to prepare to drill a relief well.
  3. Of great interest to scientists and engineers is the plan to install a collection dome on the seafloor and transport the oil and gas to the surface where it could be burned.  This would be an extraordinary feat given the water depth and flow rates.  One of the first such collection systems was Brown and Root’s famous “Sombrero” that was deployed during the Ixtoc blowout in 1981.  The Sombrero was considered a failure, but important lessons were learned.  A good MMS study of deepwater containment systems is linked.

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Map View

Isometric View

Link

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Per Admiral Landry: The well is still flowing

  1. The estimated flow rate is 1000 BOPD.  This is a very rough estimate.
  2. Apparently the flow never stopped and oil is leaking from the end of the riser which is strewn just above the seafloor.  The flow was detected during an ROV search over the length of the riser.
  3. The Deepwater Horizon is on the seafloor 1300 feet NW of the well site.
  4. The oil is relatively light which should facilitate natural evaporation and dispersion.

Thoughts:  Given the absence of confirmation that BOPE have been actuated, yesterday’s “no flow” announcement was more surprising than today’s “still flowing” announcement.  While the new flow rate figure is a very rough estimate, the Admiral seems confident that flow is substantially reduced.  This could be attributable to the head (about 0.465 psi/fit)  imposed by 5000′ of seawater and the crimping of the riser pipe.  Also, given the apparent uncertainty about the BOPE, it is also possible that a BOP ram has been actuated but the well bore has not been completely sealed.

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Senior Chief Petty Officer Mike O’Berry said remote controlled submarines have been unable to shut the valves on equipment at the wellhead on the sea floor, but it appears the flow of oil from subsurface reservoirs has stopped on its own.  Houston Chronicle

It’s surprising that the flow would stop on its own.  They were reported to have just set production casing, so the well was fully cased.  Perhaps the flow emanated from the production casing annulus, and sediments bridged or plugged the annulus?  It will be interesting to see what the next steps are.  An attempt to reconnect to the well with a new rig and riser would seem unlikely unless they can confirm that the BOPE is functioning properly.  It seems likely that the relief well will continue.

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Per the Coast Guard, there is no flow from the well as of this morning.  (more to follow)

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-Per the Houston Chronicle, the missing include 9 Transocean employees and 2 from the mud contractor M-I SWACO.

-According to AP and others, the fire was extinguished when the rig sank.  I have seen no information on the condition or location of the riser, or the release point (depth) for the oil.  This needs to be clarified.

-The worst-case pollution scenario is thus emerging.  In addition to booms and skimmers, will the responders deploy fire boom and attempt to burn oil on the water surface?  When and how will dispersants be used? Will new thickness sensors and aerial slick mapping technology be employed?  This spill will be the ultimate challenge (and opportunity) for responders.

-Very few clues have been provided about what caused the blowout.  At the first news conference, Transocean reported that production casing was being set, implying an influx during or just after cementing operations (a common contributing factor for well control incidents).   A cement plug was to be set as a barrier in the well, which was to have been suspended (temporarily abandoned).  No information has been provided on the flow path for the hydrocarbons, attempted use of BOPE, and other issues of great interest.  The high flow rate would seem to imply a flow path directly up the production casing, but this is just speculation.

-According to Upstream, Transocean’s newest semisubmersible, the Development Driller III, will drill the relief well.

-I haven’t given up hope on actuating BOPE with the ROV.  They should be able to function rams in that manner.  No information has been provided on the problems that have been experienced with this operation.

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-11 crew members are still missing.  Chances of finding survivors are very slim.
-The inevitable happened – the Deepwater Horizon sank.
-In light of the rig sinking, I’m now using the prospect name – Macondo – for this incident.
-The Coast Guard reports (NBC news clip) that the well is not leaking at the seafloor and that all flow is through the riser.  A high percentage of that oil is burning at the surface.  This is the optimal scenario from a pollution standpoint, but how long will the riser hold up?
-Comment: The official website updates need to be improved.  Most of us can’t attend the news conferences (or dial-in).  There is no information about the ongoing attempts to actuate the BOPE with the ROV  (what problems have emerged?, next steps?), relief well planning (rig identified? estimated spud date?), spill response equipment, trajectory analyses, and other important aspects of the response.
-Rating the evening news coverage:
  1. NBC – Decent job; no major mistakes; good clip on the absence of seafloor leakage
  2. ABC – About what you expect from network news; not entirely accurate, but in the ballpark
  3. CBS – What event were they talking about?  Who prepared the rig, well diagram?

Funnel Cloud?

More good pictures

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A NOAA report indicates the following (not good):

  1. Rig is listing 15 degrees
  2. Most of the oil is burning but there is a slick approximately 2 miles in length. Updated NOAA trajectory analyses suggest that the Northern GOM coast would be at risk, but that it would take more than three days for oil to threaten the shorelines.  Weather and current forecast and could of course change.
  3. Initial attempts to actuate BOPE with the ROV failed.
  4. A strengthening of winds and seas is predicted by Friday evening. Such weather would put even greater stress of both the vessel and the riser.

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