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Posts Tagged ‘BBG2’

red=blocks receiving bids at BBG2; blue=BBG1 and Sale 261 leases; green=active leases issued prior to Sale 261

Although bidding at Sale BBG2 was rather subdued, Gulf heavyweights BP, Chevron, Shell, and Oxy/Anadarko, along with increasingly important Woodside Energy, competed for the 4 red blocks in the Green Canyon area (map above and table below). These elephant hunters presumably see excellent Paleogene (Wilcox) prospectivity in those blocks.

17 of the sale’s 38 bids (45%) and $32.8 milion of the sale’s $47 million in high bids (70%) were for these 4 blocks. BP’s $21 million bid for GC 404 was by far the sale’s highest bid.

Green Canyon
Block No.
No. of biddersHigh BidderBid
4045BP$21,009,990
4052BP$885,99
4485Chevron$4,967,067
4925Chevron$5,887,188

At this time, the high costs and technical complexities (e.g. deepwaterand high pressure/high temperature reservoirs) limit Wilcox development to major oil companies and well financed, technically savvy independents. Expect some of the international majors that did not participate in BBG2 to acquire lease interest at a later date, which will again raise questions about the merits of joint bidding restrictions.

From AAPG graphic-Wilcox trend map. Eastern area can be subdivided into an outboard and inboard trend, with wells in the latter area showing variable thickness due to salt tectonics contemporaneous with deposition (From Zarra et al. 2019’s AAPG Search and Discovery article).

Imbedded below is a good presentation on the Paleogene Wilcox by Dr. Mike Sweet, Univ. of Texas:

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Only 13 companies participated in the lease sale:

  • Chevron .
  • Shell
  • Walter
  • Houston Energy
  • LLOG (now owned by Harbour Energy)
  • Oxy/Anadarko
  • Woodside
  • BP
  • Red Willow
  • Focus Exploration
  • Renaissance Offshore
  • Navitas Petroleum
  • CL&F Offshore

The No-Shows:

US supermajors once active in the Gulf that have become perennial No-Shows:

  • Exxon
  • ConocoPhillips

International majors with a Gulf presence:

  • Equinor
  • Eni
  • Total
  • Petrobras
  • Repsol

Typically active independents

  • Arena
  • Cantium
  • Beacon Offshore
  • Talos
  • Kosmos
  • Murphy

Why was the participation so poor?

  • Only 3 months between BBG1 and BBG2
  • Lease sale certainty reduces urgency
  • Concerns about longer term policy changes?
  • Mergers reduce participation and competition?
  • New ownership, change in priorities?
  • More limited geologic prospectivity?

It would be helpful to hear from some of the companies that chose not to participate.

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Although no one was expecting a barnburner only 3 months after the previous sale, BBG2 was historically weak for a Gulf-wide sale. The table below compares BBG2 with the previous 4 Gulf sales, none of which were particularly impressive.

However, the sale was not without highlights. There was some spirited bidding for tracts in the Green Canyon area. BP’s bid was the highest of 5 for GC Block 404. BP bid $21 million for the block, 45% of the high bids sum for the entire sale. The BP bid was also $20 million higher than the next highest bid for that tract (ouch!).

Also interesting was Chevron edging Shell $5,887,188.00 to $5,501,240.00 to acquire GC Block 492.

Sale No.257259261BBG1BBG2
date11/17/20213/29/202312/20/202312/10/20253/11/2026
companies
participating
3332263013
total bids22332842316121938
tracts receiving bids21432442275118125
sum of all bids
$millions
198.5309.8441.9371.969.9
sum of high bids
($millions)
101.7263.8382.2279.447.0
highest bid
company
block
$10,001,252
Anadarko
AC 259
$15,911,947
Chevron
KC 96
$25,500,085
Anadarko
MC 389
$18,592,086
Chevron
KC 25
$21,009,990
bp
GC 404
most high bids
company
sum ($millions)
46
bp
29.0
75
Chevron
108.0
65
Shell
69.0
50
bp
61.0
6
Anadarko (Oxy)
4.0
sum of high bids ($millions)
company
47.1
Chevron
108
Chevron
88.3
Hess
61.0
bp
22.6
bp
most high bids by independent14-DG Expl.13-Beacon
13-Red Willow
22-Red Willow14-Murphy5-LLOG
1excludes 36 leases improperly acquired for carbon disposal purposes; 2excludes 69 leases improperly acquired for carbon disposal purposes; 3excludes 94 leases improperly acquired for carbon disposal purposes

For historical comparison purposes, Gulf Sale 206 drew $3.7 billion ($5.6 billion in today’s dollars) in 2008. Twenty-siz sales between 1972 and 2013 garnered more than $1 billion in high bids.

Sale stats

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Gulf of America oil and gas lease sale BBG2 will be held tomorrow. The Notice of Sale is attached.

Although Big Beautiful Gulf 1 (BBG1) was rather lackluster, BBG 2 is unlikely to match it in terms of the number of bids and their sum. Prior to BBG1, there had been no lease sale for two years. BBG 2 is being held only 3 months later.

Given the short duration between sales, the bid evaluations for BBG1 are not yet completed. However, the sale notice advises that any block which received a bid in BBG1 is excluded from BBG2.

Will the recent increase in oil prices influence bidding? Probably not given the longer term nature of offshore development and expectations that the current price spike will be of short duration. Onshore shale oil production is more responsive to price fluctuations.

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