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Archive for the ‘climate’ Category

NASA has identified 50+ super-emitters of methane including sites in Turkmenistan (image below) that emit an estimated 111,000 pounds per hour.

 

By comparison, vented Gulf of Mexico methane emissions in 2021 totaled 1953 mmcf. This converts to 82 million pounds at atmospheric pressure and 60°F. The identified Turkmenistan sources would thus release the amount of methane in a month that all Gulf of Mexico facilities vent in a year (2021).

East of Hazar, Turkmenistan, a port city on the Caspian Sea, 12 plumes of methane stream westward. The plumes were detected by NASA’s Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation mission and some of them stretch for more than 20 miles (32 kilometers).

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Two supporters of Just Stop Oil have thrown soup over Vincent Van Gogh’s Sunflowers, as actions in the capital roll into the 14th day. They are demanding that the UK government halts all new oil and gas projects.

Just Stop Oil

Why these stunts will continue in Europe and N. America:

  • Minimal penalties for their behavior.
  • Publicity and contributions. (Donate buttons are the main feature of JustStopOil)
  • Prominent supporters and leading political figures have endorsed their message, if not their conduct.
  • Weak, imbalanced educational systems, particularly with regard to energy.

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Louisiana treasurer John Schroder said Wednesday he would pull $794 million of state money from BlackRock Inc. funds.

“Your blatantly anti-fossil fuel policies would destroy Louisiana’s economy,” Mr. Schroder wrote.

WSJ

Here is the pertinent guidance from Louisiana Attorney General Jeff Landry:

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Planned obsolescence, as justification for the minimalist leasing program (see below), is neither prudent nor consistent with the OCS Lands Act.

The long-term nature of OCS oil and gas development, such that production on a lease can continue for decades makes consideration of future climate pathways relevant to the Secretary’s determinations with respect to how the OCS leasing program best meets the Nation’s energy needs.

5 Year Leasing Program, p.3

Basing offshore leasing decisions on “future climate pathways” is a high risk strategy that may be inconsistent with the recent SCOTUS decision in West Virginia vs. EPA. A planned or phased shutdown of the offshore oil and gas program would dramatically increase economic and security risks, and has not been authorized by legislation.

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Sept 30 (Reuters) – The ruptures on the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline system under the Baltic Sea have led to what is likely the biggest single release of climate-damaging methane ever recorded, the United Nations Environment Programme said on Friday.

“This is really bad, most likely the largest emission event ever detected,” Manfredi Caltagirone, head of the IMEO for UNEP, told Reuters. “This is not helpful in a moment when we absolutely need to reduce emissions.”

Researchers at GHGSat, which uses satellites to monitor methane emissions, estimated the leak rate from one of four rupture points was 22,920 kilograms per hour. That is equivalent to burning about 630,000 pounds of coal every hour, GHGSat said in a statement.

The Nord Stream methane release, while puzzling and rather frightening given the potential for escalating international tensions, was not an environmental disaster or even a major environmental setback.

Some perspective:

  • estimate for the main Nord Stream leak (likely the maximum or near-maximum rate) = 22,930 kg/hr
  • 22,930 kg/h = 550,320 kg/day = 550.320 x 106 g/day
  • total methane source for North American coastal waters (NASEM, Oil in the Sea, p. 63) = 4 – 20 Tg/yr
  • 10 Tg/yr (i.e. 10 x 1012 g/yr) = 0.027 x 1012 g/day = 27000 x 106 g/day
  • This is ~50 times the temporary (maximum?) daily rate for the Nord Stream leak
  • North American input from seafloor seepage only (NASEM, Oil in the Sea, p. 63) = 2 – 9 Tg/yr
  • assuming 5 x 1012 g/year or 13700 x 106 g/day
  • This is ~25 times the temporary (maximum?) daily rate for the Nord Stream leak

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Rep. Rashiba Tlaib: “Does your bank have a policy against funding new oil and gas products?” (I assume her script said “projects,” and that she misread it. She also butchered “Celsius,” a word that should be very familiar to such a climate expert.)

Jamie Dimon: “Absolutely not and that would be the road to Hell for America.”

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Per Executive Order 14082, September 12, 2022, yet another White House office and task force has been established to coordinate (direct?) the 26 Federal Departments (plus many bureaus and offices) with energy and climate responsibilities.

Sec. 3. White House Office on Clean Energy Innovation and Implementation. There is hereby established the White House Office on Clean Energy Innovation and Implementation within the Executive Office of the President, which shall coordinate the policymaking process with respect to implementing the energy and infrastructure provisions of the Act and other essential initiatives. The White House Office on Clean Energy Innovation and Implementation shall have a staff headed by the Senior Advisor for Clean Energy Innovation and Implementation; shall have such staff and other assistance as may be necessary to carry out the provisions of this order, subject to the availability of appropriations; and may work with established or ad hoc committees and interagency groups.

Sec. 4. ‘‘There is hereby established a National Climate Task Force (Task Force). The Task Force shall be chaired by the Senior Advisor for Clean Energy Innovation and Implementation. The National Climate Advisor shall serve as Vice Chair.’’

Task Force Membership:

(i) the Secretary of the Treasury; (ii) the Secretary of Defense; (iii) the Attorney General; (iv) the Secretary of the Interior; (v) the Secretary of Agriculture; (vi) the Secretary of Commerce; (vii) the Secretary of Labor; (viii) the Secretary of Health and Human Services; (ix) the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development; (x) the Secretary of Transportation; (xi) the Secretary of Energy; (xii) the Secretary of Education; (xiii) the Secretary of Homeland Security; (xiv) the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency; (xv) the Director of the Office of Management and Budget; (xvi) the Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy; (xvii) the Administrator of the Small Business Administration; (xviii) the Chair of the Council on Environmental Quality; (xix) the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs; (xx) the Assistant to the President for Domestic Policy; (xxi) the Assistant to the President for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism; (xxii) the Assistant to the President for Economic Policy; (xxiii) the Administrator of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration; (xxiv) the Chief Executive Officer of the Corporation for National and Community Service; (xxv) the Administrator of General Services; (xxvi) the White House Infrastructure Coordinator; and (xxvii) the heads of such other departments, agencies, and offices as the Chair or Vice Chair may from time to time invite to participate.’’

Over the years, the work of cabinet departments has been increasingly directed by the White House, such that cabinet officials confirmed by the Senate are often subordinate to White House staff. Critics contend that the centralization of energy and climate policy in the White House has delayed and altered important Departmental actions. Did the White House climate office author this rather extreme statement in the introductory text for the proposed 5-year leasing plan?

The long-term nature of OCS oil and gas development, such that production on a lease can continue for decades makes consideration of future climate pathways relevant to the Secretary’s determinations with respect to how the OCS leasing program best meets the Nation’s energy needs. (Interpretation: offshore oil and gas production must be throttled down to correspond with the climate office’s energy fantasies.)

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GoM oil production for June increased (see chart below) with King’s Quay and Spruance contributing to the uptick. Other anticipated 2022 startups are not yet producing.

The EIA production forecast for 2022 is proving to be pretty accurate. Kudos to them. However, BOEM’s 2022 forecast of 1.9 million bopd is not achievable and concerns about the intermediate and longer term persist. Unfortunately, BOEM’s highly optimistic forecast for 2022 and beyond, along with unrealistic expectations regarding the energy transition, have significant policy implications. This stunning quote from the 5 year leasing plan explains why so few lease sales were proposed:

BOEM’s short-term (20-year) production forecast for existing leases shows steady growth from 2022 through 2024 and declining thereafter (see Section 5.2.1). The long-term nature of OCS oil and gas development, such that production on a lease can continue for decades makes consideration of future climate pathways relevant to the Secretary’s determinations with respect to how the OCS leasing program best meets the Nation’s energy needs.

5 Year Leasing Program, p.3

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Per legislation signed by the President on Aug. 16, 2022:

(b) LEASE SALE 257 REINSTATEMENT.—
(1) ACCEPTANCE OF BIDS.—Not later 30 days after the date of enactment of this Act, the Secretary shall, without modification or delay
(A) accept the highest valid bid for each tract or bidding unit of Lease Sale 257 for which a valid bid was received on November 17, 2021; and
(B) provide the appropriate lease form to the winning bidder to execute and return.

The Department of the Interior has been silent on their implementation of this provision. We are particularly interested in:

  1. how the 94 carbon sequestration bids will be handled
  2. whether any bids will be rejected on fair market value grounds

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China also has boosted annual coal production by 490 million tonnes since last year, enough to meet demand from Germany and Russia combined, the coal mine safety bureau said this month, describing coal as “still our country’s most important source of power”.

The country has continued to develop new coal-fired plants, with construction on the second phase of the Zheneng Liuheng coal-fired power station in eastern China’s Zhejiang province beginning at the start of this month. New coal-fired power construction was at its highest since 2016 last year.

Reuters

related post

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