Bud's Offshore Energy (BOE)

Hurricane Juan - "Sudden Storm" killed 9 offshore workers in 1985

The offshore industry has an outstanding hurricane evacuation record, but the Macondo blowout adds a significant new dimension to the decision making process.  Disconnect the production risers and 35,000 to 60,000 bopd flow directly into the Gulf.  Suspend the relief wells and the final Macondo solution gets moved that much farther into the future.

There will be pressure to minimize the downtime and that would be a mistake.  Days, not hours, will be needed to prepare for the evacuations.  Decisions will have to be made well in advance of a storm’s arrival and will be based on less reliable long-term weather forecasts.  If a shutdown decision is made too soon, hundreds of thousands of additional barrels of oil pour into the Gulf.  If the decision is delayed, lives are threatened.

The most frightening scenarios are associated with “sudden storms” which can form in or near the Gulf and explode into hurricanes in hours, not days.  The rapid formation and development of these storms precludes an orderly shutdown and evacuation process, and poses a major safety threat to workers.  In 1985, nine offshore workers were killed when Hurricane Juan formed suddenly in the Gulf and personnel could not be safely evacuated.

Let’s hope that the well is brought under control before any hurricanes enter or form in the Gulf.  If not, decision makers need to exercise extreme caution and shutdown operations before lives are threatened.