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Posts Tagged ‘energy security’

Thinking of those who gave their lives to protect our freedoms, including workers who died providing the energy needed to power our economy.

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The North Sea Transition Authority (perhaps the transition is a bit more complicated than changing the name of the licensing agency) has announced the awarding of 27 new oil and gas licenses in the UK sector of the North Sea. Summary bullets:

  • Quicker-to-production areas chosen to aid UK energy security
  • First to be awarded from 115 applications – the highest number since 2016/17 29th Licensing Round (see map below)
  • More blocks will be offered subject to additional environmental checks

These licences are in the Central and Northern North Sea, and West of Shetland. There are currently 284 offshore fields in production in the UK North Sea and an estimated 5.25 billion boe in total projected production to 2050. 

CGG map showing applications

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Despite continuous legal and policy headwinds, and the absence of some historically important US companies, technological innovation is sustaining US offshore production at about 1.7 to 1.8 million BOPD. BOE will continue to monitor drilling, production, and safety performance and draw attention to the leading companies.

Think about where we would be today without the shale revolution and onshore production on private lands. Grateful!

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The SPR withdrawals are scheduled to end just prior to the mid-term elections. What happens if oil markets tighten further, perhaps with OPEC assistance?

Remember that the SPR was intended to diminish the vulnerability of the United States to the effects of a severe energy supply interruption!

Updated SPR “milestones”

  • Largest-ever one year decline – 168.2 million bbl or 24.4% (8/13/2020 to 8/19/2022)
  • 37.7% decline since 2010
  • 72 consecutive weeks of decline – 4/9/2021 to 8/19/2022
  • 47 million bbls below the important 500 million barrel threshold which had never before been breached on the downside
  • Lowest inventory since 1/11/1985
Above numbers are end of year volumes except for 2022 which is as of 8/19

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Energy security will be a featured topic at the conference. Note the lineup for the Zelenskyy session:

President Zelenskyy will be introduced by the Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, and will be followed on stage by Elon Musk, Ben Van Beurden (CEO, Shell), Patrick Pouyanné (CEO, TotalEnergies) and Anders Opedal (CEO, Equinor) among others. 

ONS 2022

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towing the Troll platform, 1995

Good article from our friends at the Petroleum Safety Authority of Norway. When old guys reminisce, people need to listen 😉

“Reagan feared that the world, and especially Europe, would become too dependent on Soviet gas, and saw Troll as an opportunity to create greater independence.”

“Lerøen sees parallels to the current situation, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the importance Norwegian gas has for the EU, which wants to become independent of Russian gas.” 

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Remember that only 5 weeks ago Judge Contreras (DC Federal Court) vacated OCS Lease Sale 257 because  BOEM didn’t analyze the benefits of higher oil and gas prices (as a result of lower US offshore production) in reducing international consumption and GHG emissions. The about that!

Lease Sale 257 wouldn’t have helped get us through this crisis, but would have most definitely reduced our vulnerability to future crises.

473 days since the last US offshore oil and gas lease sale.

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Since well before the Putin crisis, this independent blog has been expressing concerns about sustaining US offshore oil and gas production without new leases and increased exploration (more here). Now that concerns about domestic production and energy security are heightened (understatement of the year!), let’s review where the leasing program stands:

  • 466 days have elapsed since the last oil and gas lease sale (Nov. 19, 2020), with no future sales in sight.
  • There had been 182 sales in the previous 66 years of the US offshore oil and gas program, an average of 2.76 per year. Never before (since 1953) has a year transpired without a lease sale.
  • Currently, there are only 2016 active US OCS leases and 506 producing leases, the fewest in at least 40 years (recent history charted below).
  • Despite favorable geology beneath the deepwater Gulf of Mexico and advanced exploration and well completion technology, US offshore oil production (1.713 million bopd per the latest EIA data – Dec. 2021) is down 16% from the August 2019 peak of 2.044 million BOPD. Gulf oil production is thus the lowest since 2018 (except during hurricane shutdowns).
  • New projects and higher ultimate recoveries from producing reservoirs could increase total offshore production by 10-20% over the next few years, but sharp declines will follow without new leases and increased exploration.

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May be an image of monument, outdoors and text

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