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Posts Tagged ‘Hurricane Ida’

Noble doesn’t address the rumored disconnect and relocation issues, but in a carefully worded statement confirms that the Globetrotter II encountered hurricane conditions.

SUGAR LAND, Texas, Aug. 29, 2021 /PRNewswire/ — Noble Corporation (NYSE: NE, “Noble” or the “Company”) today announced that all personnel onboard the Pacific Sharav, Noble Globetrotter I, and Noble Globetrotter II ultra-deepwater drillships in the US Gulf of Mexico are safe and accounted for following Hurricane Ida.  Each rig successfully secured its respective well in progress and took evasive actions to avoid the storm’s path.  Of the three, the Noble Globetrotter II is the only vessel that encountered hurricane-force conditions.  The vessel maintained stability throughout the weather event and is operating on its own power with functional marine and safety systems.  A full assessment of its condition will be completed as soon as the weather clears.

GLOBETROTTER II photo
Globetrotter II

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BSEE’s 8/29 update indicates that over 1.74 million BOPD have been shut-in by Ida. Based on the most recent EIA production data, this is essentially all Gulf of Mexico oil production.

There has also been some early noise on social media about offshore facility damage. None of these reports have been confirmed by the Coast Guard, BSEE, or the companies involved. The most credible reports relate to the Noble Globetrotter II deepwater drillship. Per the reports, allegedly from workers on the rig, the Globetrotter II was hit by Ida before the riser was disconnected and recovered. The rig is reported to have sustained significant damage and there may have been injuries. This type of incident has occurred in the past when dynamically positioned drillships have not successfully pulled their riser and relocated prior to the storm’s arrival. One report indicated 60′ waves and 140 mph winds at the rigs’s location.

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Per BSEE’s 8/28 update, 90.84% of GoM oil production is reported to be shut-in. Given that there is some uncertainty in both the numerator (production shut-in) and the denominator (base production), there is a margin of error (~5%?) in that figure. The large discrepancy in the % of manned facilities evacuated (only 50) and % of oil production shut-in (90+) illustrates the dominance of deepwater facilities, mostly shut-in, in GoM oil production.

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Map from Weather.com

In light of the projected storm track for Ida, forecasting uncertainty, and the need to err on the side of caution in making evacuation and shut-in decisions, particularly for deepwater facilities, look for at least 75% of Gulf of Mexico oil production (approximately 1.3 million BOPD) to be shut-in temporarily.

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