Per rig tracker data, the Stena DrillMAX has been on location at Exxon’s Orphan Basin wellsite since Sunday (19 May). The site is 317 miles (510 km) NE of St. John’s in Block 1169 (~3000 m water depth).
Per this very good resource assessment report for the Govt. of Newfoundland and Labrador, “the Orphan Basin area demonstrates a potentially prolific petroleum system with four main plays (reservoirs and associated seals) sourced by various source rocks (Upper Jurassic, Cretaceous, and Paleogene).“
Unrisked resource estimates (theoretical pending confirmation by drilling) at the 90, 50, and 10% probability levels for the Orphan Basin blocks offered for licensing in Nov. 2022:
Taking into account the risks of the geologic model not accurately reflecting the reservoir, seal, charging, and trap components of the petroleum system, the probability of finding 13.5 billion drops to 16% (see plot below). This is still a high probability for a massive wildcat discovery.
This is why you move a state-of-the-art drillship thousands of miles to drill a single exploratory well at a remote location in the North Atlantic. The most likely outcome is negative or inconclusive findings, but the potential for such a major discovery justifies the investment.
Bud's Offshore Energy (BOE) 