Assuming the Gulf of Mexico oil and gas lease sale proceeds tomorrow in accordance with Judge Cain’s order, some interesting questions and issues remain:
- Will the lingering Rice’s whale issues affect bidding for deepwater leases? Friday’s court order is not a final resolution of those issues, either legally or administratively. While the Rice’s whale stipulation, at the direction of the Federal court, will not be included in the Sale 261 leases, BOEM’s Notice to Lessees and Operators (NTL) includes the same provisions and still stands pending further consultations with NOAA. Although the NTL is a “guidance document” (wink-wink), there are ways of making it stick through the exploration plan approval process. Even without binding requirements, companies might choose to fully comply to minimize legal risks.
- When will the next GoM lease sale be held? Will the uncertainty spur or constrain bidding?
- Will the 14 blocks with rejected high bids at Sale 259 receive bids at Sale 261? If so, will the bids be higher or lower?
- Will bp, Chevron, Shell, Equinor, Oxy, and Woodside continue to be bullish on the GoM?
- Will Red Willow Offshore, owned by the Southern Ute tribe, again be an active bidder?
- Will Exxon again seek to acquire carbon sequestration leases at an oil and gas lease sale? After a long absence, it would be good to see the US super-major acquire leases for oil and gas purposes. Ditto for ConocoPhillips.
- How many companies will participate in the sale? 30-35 would be a nice outcome.
- What will be the sum of the high bids? >$300 million would be a good result.
Bud's Offshore Energy (BOE) 
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