Bud's Offshore Energy (BOE)

New 5MB hard drive to be used for spill rate estimates.

BOE exclusive: We have learned that the Flow Rate Technical Group (FRTG) has imported sophisticated new computer equipment (pictured above) which will finally settle the Macondo flow rate debate.  The dart boards used in making previous estimates are being shipped to the Smithsonian for public viewing 🙂

The FRTG has four teams of distinguished scientists and engineers, but only 2 have provided estimates – the Plume Team and the Mass Balance Team.  The Plume Team seems to be getting the most publicity, probably because their large range (20,000 – 40,000 bopd) includes the highest “official” flow estimate to date.  Before embracing these results, you may want to take a look at their statement and the summary paper, neither of which instills great confidence.

The Reservoir Modeling Team seems to be the best hope for a reasonably accurate estimate, but has yet to provide any findings.  Their approach is described below:

This team will describe the geologic formations as well as composition and pressures of the oil, natural gas, and other compounds that are being released.  Using open-hole logs; pressure, volume, and temperature data; core samples; and analog well or reservoir data; the team will populate computer models and determine flow rate from targeted sands in the well as a function of bottomhole pressure.

Don’t expect this controversy to be settled soon.