EIA has posted the June 2024 US production data. Gulf of Mexico production was remarkably flat from February through June, with a maximum deviation of only 2.0% (FEB vs. APR) and a deviation of only 0.5% from the beginning of this 5 month period to the end. Looking at the historical EIA data, this is about as stable of a 5 month period as I could find. Presumably, production from the new deepwater facilities is offsetting declines elsewhere as anticipated.
Unfortunately, the production growth forecasted by BOEM is not being realized. BOEM’s 2024 production forecast of 2.013 million bopd will likely be more than 200,000 bopd too high. Their forecast of >2 million bopd through 2027 is increasingly doubtful. These production forecasts contributed to (or were an excuse for) unprecedented leasing policies intended to prevent production from rising too high for too long.
Per ONRR data, the Gulf of Mexico continued to be the top oil producer for Federal lands in 2023. An additional 72.7 million bbls were produced on Native American lands. New Mexico, which has experienced significant Permian basin production growth, ranked second. The Texas Permian was the dominant US oil producer, but that production is almost exclusively on private lands (a big factor in the Permian success story).
| Location (Federal lands) | 2023 production (bbls) |
| Gulf of Mexico | 680,548,975 |
| New Mexico | 409,987,014 |
| Wyoming | 47,232,043 |
| North Dakota | 43,225,104 |
| Other | 33,635,796 |
Bud's Offshore Energy (BOE) 