This excerpt from a University of Michigan article describes the engineer’s paradox:
For engineers, failure and risk have a special relationship. If they don’t take risks they never do anything new. But if they do take risks, their probability of failing increases. So engineers must welcome risk and the opportunity to learn from failure, but they must make every effort to succeed. This leaves engineers in the odd predicament of becoming less informed as they become more successful. In that light, bad judgment could be an invaluable but potentially lethal experience. Conversely, evidence shows that experience fosters good judgment – the longer people do something, the more likely they are to make decisions, and in making them they’ll acquire not just an appreciation for the difficulty of rendering good judgments but the skill to do it well.
Comments:
- Society is dependent on engineers taking risks. These risks can be managed, but not totally eliminated.
- The oil and gas that are produced offshore support economic development and technological advances that make our lives safer and cleaner.
- Importing energy transfers some risk to other locations, but does not reduce (and may actually increase) the overall risk associated with energy consumption.
- Experience matters. Optimal corporate and governmental risk management regimes emphasize the role of experts in making project-specific and programmatic decisions, and promote industry-government communication among specialists. Experience is not a conflict of interest!
Bud's Offshore Energy (BOE) 