DUBAI, June 13 (Reuters) – OPEC does not see a peak in oil demand in its long-term forecast and expects demand to grow to 116 million barrels a day by 2045, and may be higher, the secretary general said on Thursday.
The International Energy Agency said in a report on Wednesday it sees oil demand peaking by 2029, levelling off at around 106 million barrels per day (bpd) towards the end of the decade.
Hathaim Al Ghais, writing in Energy Aspects, called the IEA report “dangerous commentary, especially for consumers, and will only lead to energy volatility on a potentially unprecedented scale”.
Perhaps the most likely path to oil demand peaking by 2029 is a worldwide recession that the energy policies encouraged by IEA could precipitate. Energy policy in the US and elsewhere suffers from the illusion that a transition to an economy based on intermittent energy sources is imminent. Remarkably, the authors of our 5 year offshore leasing plan were concerned that offshore production would continue for too long. That line of thought led to a 5 year plan no lease sales except for 3 that are a prerequisite to issuing new wind leases.
Bud's Offshore Energy (BOE) 